By Lewis Loflin | Published May 27, 2025
Dire warnings of sinking islands due to climate-driven sea level rise have fueled alarmist narratives for decades. A 2022 Nature study (Carl et al., 2022) highlights scientists’ progressive leanings, suggesting a bias toward catastrophic predictions. Yet, evidence from Tuvalu atolls, shaped by Pacific tectonic dynamics, challenges this hype, exposing a science-industrial complex—akin to Eisenhower’s military-industrial complex—that prioritizes fear over facts. Equal funding for competing perspectives could force clearer, evidence-based communication to rebuild public trust.
As Dr. Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder, stated, “Science is based on observation and verification and replication.” Claims of catastrophic sea level rise, repeated for over 50 years, fail this test. Sea levels have risen gradually for 11,700 years since the last Ice Age, with no significant acceleration since 1850 (IPCC, 2021). Even during the Eemian warm period (130,000–115,000 years ago), Greenland ice melt and sea level rise were moderate, not catastrophic. Yet, alarmist narratives persist, driven by a science-industrial complex that rewards dire predictions with funding—$13.2 billion for climate programs in 2017 (GAO, 2018).
Tuvalu, a Pacific nation often cited as a climate change victim, defies the sinking-island narrative. A University of Auckland study (Kench et al., 2018) examined Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands from 1971 to 2014 using aerial photos and satellite imagery. It found:
Eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.The claim of “twice the global average” sea level rise is misleading, as sea level rise is uniform globally due to gravity (NOAA, 2023). Local land changes explain Tuvalu’s expansion. The Pacific Ocean floor is dynamic, with sections rising or subsiding due to plate tectonics and volcanism (Bevis et al., 2019). Some atolls uplift with tectonic activity, while others subside, independent of climate-driven sea level rise. Coral accretion and sediment deposition further enable atolls to adapt naturally, as seen in Bikini Atoll, where beaches remained stable post-1940s nuclear testing despite over two dozen blasts.
The Nature study notes scientists’ progressive bias (60-70% liberal, Gross & Simmons, 2014), but ignores how this shapes climate narratives. Like Eisenhower’s military-industrial complex, a science-industrial complex—academics, institutions, and policymakers—prioritizes alarmist outcomes to secure funding ($190 billion in federal R&D, 2023). Positive stories, like Tuvalu’s growth or Bikini’s lagoon recovery, are downplayed, while natural processes like tectonic shifts are ignored. Progressives reject science on nuclear power (safe, low-CO2) and GMOs (NAS-approved), mirroring conservative climate skepticism. This selective narrative fuels distrust, with only 30% of Americans highly trusting scientists for policy (Pew, 2020).
| Climate Narrative | Reality Check |
|---|---|
| Tuvalu sinking due to sea level rise | Land area grew 2.9% due to coral and tectonics (Kench et al., 2018). |
| Accelerated sea level rise since 1850 | Steady rise for 11,700 years; no acceleration (IPCC, 2021). |
One-sided funding rewards alarmism, not inquiry. Equal funding for competing perspectives—mainstream, skeptical, and adaptation-focused—could disrupt this complex. Scientists would be forced to:
Tuvalu’s growing atolls, shaped by Pacific tectonics and coral dynamics, debunk catastrophic sea level rise claims, exposing a science-industrial complex echoing Eisenhower’s warning. Both Left and Right reject science selectively, yet funding favors alarmist narratives. Equal support for all perspectives, grounded in observation, would foster transparency and rebuild trust. Science must prioritize reason over fear, serving society through evidence, not elite agendas.
Media bias and closed discussions: