Computer model data versus measured data.

Applying Reason to Social Issues

by Lewis Loflin

Changes for December 2018. This website will address science, technology, and issues related to them. I will no longer cover violent crime or general politics other than updates.

For an archive of older posts see Article List.

The goal is the application of reason backed by empirical proof to solve problems without spirituality, religion, or feelings. I don't discount these three, but they have zero use in applied science.

If there is any issue more irrational and hysterical it is climate change. Climate change is real and ongoing for millions of years. Climate does shift abruptly for mostly unknown reasons.

This is a political and social movement, not scientific. Many on the far left with this "Green New Deal" we hear about in the news is about wealth redistribution and ending capitalism.

I have no interest in socialism or "climate justice". "Green" is an attack on science in general. They want an end Western culture. See How Scientific Advances Are Built on Western Culture

Studies are conducted to find human causes and ignore natural causes. What are reported as scary numbers are actually very small compared to the overall geological and historical records.

The belief nature is sacred or any form of spiritual views are religion. This has no place in public policy.

The plate above illustrates how computer models (virtual climate models) have greatly deviated from real world measurements. The drop from 1990-95 was due to volcanism. I'll address that and more below.

Skepticism is good.

Between 9000 and 6000 years ago a hypisthermal (high heat) interval allowed dwarf birch shrubs to replace tundra in some areas. "Temperatures have fluctuated since then." Stanley P508-9.

Over the last 3500 years there have been 4 cold periods and 4 warm periods. During the last cold period (Little Ice Age 1500-1850) many mountain glaciers expanded. They are melting today and they should be. Stanley P510 fig. 20-12.

Severe droughts have occurred during the present Holocene Epoch we live in today. This is particularly true of the American Southwest. Tree ring studies from the Western slopes of the Sierra Nevada "indicate that during the past 1000 years California has seldom received as much precipitation as it does today."

Carbon dating of tree stumps exposed at Mono Lake showed this was dry land between 1112 and 1350 AD. Fears are that California and the Great Plains may return to their historical desert conditions from 800 to 1300 AD. Stanley P511.

Sea levels have also risen quickly due to unknown reasons. Between 8500 and 7600 shallow water reefs formed along Florida and the Caribbean coasts. They suddenly died out when sea level rose in 7600. They are 30-90 meters below sea level today.

River valleys such as Chesapeake, Delaware, and Mobile were also flooded. Stanley P512. At the same time some coastlines are rising and other subsiding due to natural geological forces. The Gulf Coast from Texas to Mississippi are subsiding or sinking. So are the coasts from Maryland to Maine at the rate of 5-10 millimeters per year. Stanley P513.

Dr. Stanley goes into humans and climate change because others claim it is true. But his own text proves how much to attribute to humans can't be proven. He notes the reduction of ice on Mt. Kilimanjaro, but failed to note the expansion of that ice in the prior centuries earlier in his own textbook. From page 514 onward should have been left out of the book.

He is walking a fine line on this issue. He is trying to disprove the first two-thirds of Chapter 20 that prove present climate events are no different than earlier Holocene climate events. Now we are in the realm of speculation, not earth system history.

At page 519 Dr. Stanley asks, "Have climate changes been gradual during the Holocene time?" His answer is NO. Thus gradual climate change has NEVER been part of the natural world even without humans.

Ref. Earth System History by Dr. Steven M. Stanley 2009.

The claim of 97% consensus is false. Surveys were sent to 10,257 members of the American Geophysical Union. 3,146 responded, but only 77 were cherry picked with the title "climate scientist". 75 answered yes to humans caused climate change. No, 75 out of 3,146 is 2.4%.

See graphic The 97% is only 75 people.

Temperatures since 1880 increased from ~288 deg. Kelvin to 288.8 deg. Kelvin or 0.3%

Population has grown from 1.5 to 7 billion.

0.8 deg. C = 1.44 F; 3 deg. C = 5.4 F

The Pliocene (~3 MYA) was 5.4 deg. F warmer.

Pliocene CO2 was the same as today. There is no direct connection to that level of warming and CO2.

See the graphic Ice Core Data Last 5 Million Years.

Just how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere? How much did humans and all sources add over the last 140 years?

CO2 is 0.04%. Human added CO2 since 1880 0.01%

Temperatures have risen 1.44 deg. Fahrenheit to 1.6 deg. Fahrenheit since 1880. But temperatures have fallen about 1 deg. since 2016 due to a lull in solar activity.

See the graphic Make Global Warming Great Again.

If the atmosphere weighed the same as 1 gallon water or 128 oz., then 0.04% of 128 oz = .0512 oz.

Humans and all sources since 1880 have added only one-fourth o 0.0512 oz. / 4 or 0.0128 oz. That is about ~ 300 milligrams or 0.3 grams.

The Arctic froze over for the first time 2.6 million years ago. Prior to that normal global climate was far warmer than today. See graphic Ice Cores Reveal Climate Today is too cold today.



The claims of the oceans becoming acid are false. The pH of the oceans varies around 8.2 and is basic far from acid.

A 7 is neutral and below 7 is acid. See the graphic pH Scale.

The idea any change in the ocean is a death sentence is utter nonsense. See Bikini Atoll Recovery.

River Thames frozen.

There is a lot of hysteria over Arctic sea ice melt. The record only goes back to 1979. Melting began before 1850 when the Little Ice Age ended. Before that the Thames River in London froze over. That has not happened in 150 years.

The Antarctic has seen record cold. See graphic Antarctica Record Cold Ice.

The problem is so severe the American Antarctic station Amundsen Scott has been moved twice since 1957 due to being buried in ice. They even built the newest station on stilts so it can be elevated over more ice. See the graphic Antarctica Amundsen Scott Station.

In 1942 six American P38F fighters and 2 B17s were ditched on a glacier in Greenland. Glacier Girl one of the P38s was recovered in 1992 and restored to flying condition. In 50 years the planes were buried under 268 feet of new snow and ice. See graphic Glacier Girl.

Note that with a warming climate glaciers and ice can expand like they are in Greenland and Antarctica. This is due to more moisture falling as snow. Stanley As ice sheet shrank in North America ice continued to accumulate in Greenland. The last continental glaciers outside Greenland in the Northern Hemisphere melted around 4000 B.C. Stanley P500-01.

Sudden warming of 7 degrees Celsius in Greenland occurred 11,680 years ago in a span of just three years. That finally ended the Younger-Dryas ice age triggered by a a comet explosion event 12,900 years ago. The cause of this warming event is unknown.

Dr. Stanley notes (P501) that "knowledge of the instability of the natural systems" we have to be aware of human activities and greenhouse gasses. While this is true that make makes determining what are human causes versus natural instability nearly impossible.

For example even 1000 years ago Greenland supported crops, trees, and people when it was warmer. It hasn't supported any of that since about 1400.

Bright index as pollution clears.

Global temperatures dropped from the 1930s to 1980 due to pollution. This led to the global cooling scares of the 1970s. Sunlight became dimmer as pollution (sulfur-nitrogen oxides, soot, etc.) reflected and scattered sunlight.

With the EPA, etc. we cleaned up most real pollution and sunlight got brighter, raising temperatures to more normal since 1980. We have achieved great success. China, India, etc. are bad and getting worse.

They claim "During 2017, the average global temperatures...was 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit ( 0.8 degrees Celsius) above the twentieth century average."

That claim was factually correct, but stands as an example how to lie. They failed to mention the 0.56 degree Celsius drop in 2017-18.

Several issues come into play here. Temperature data before the 1970s was reduced by computer model simulations. They were filling in the gaps. Due to likely pollution London observed a dip in temperatures and Potsdam showed a drop in brightness from the sun. Pollution controls after 1980 mitigated that.

See the following two graphics: Maximum Temperatures in January in the UK and Solar Dimming Potsdam, Germany 1937-2014.

The graphic above shows dimming was reversed as pollution was eliminated in the West. Where it wasn't cleaned up it got worse.

A second issue was a number of large volcanic eruptions in the 1990s dropped global temperatures by 1 degree Fahrenheit. This was a particular problem with Mt. Pinatubo in 1991.

Few large eruptions occurred after 1997. When the ash and sulfur aerosols cleared by 1997 temperatures should have went back up. See graphic Volcanic Eruptions Disrupt Global Temperatures.

That is part of the dip and recovery from 1990 to 2000 in the graphic at the top of the page. The computer models failed to calculate in volcanism and pollution.

Solar flare cycles 1997.

The graphic above illustrates the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. This has a direct effect on short term global temperatures, in particular averages.

Notice the drop in 1970 that contributed to the climate cooling scare. The late 1980s cycle's effect was blunted by volcanic eruptions. By 1997 when the eruption trash and more pollution was cleared a new 11-year uptick in solar radiation began.

Comparing a short span of 16 years during two peak sunspot cycles against an entire century average, much of the data altered by computer models, is simply dishonest.

Natural factors explain everything I have presented and the graphic at the top of the page is correct. I stand by it. Humans had nothing to do with volcanoes or sunspot activity. We did and should continue to address actual pollution. We must not allow the issue to be further hijacked to promote political agendas.

More on Pollution

by THOMAS D. WILLIAMS, PH.D. 5 Jun. 2017

Despite recent attempts to paint the United States as a major global polluter, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the U.S. is among the cleanest nations on the planet. In the most recent WHO report on air pollution, the United States was listed as one of the countries with the cleanest air in the world, significantly cleaner in fact than the air in Germany, Italy, Switzerland, the UK, Japan, Austria and France.

While France and other G7 countries lamented the U.S. exit from the Paris climate accord, America’s air is already cleaner than that of any other country in the G7, except Canada with its scant population.

Following standard practice, the WHO measures air pollution by the mean annual concentration of fine suspended particles of less than 2.5 microns in diameter. These are the particles that cause diseases of all sorts and are responsible for most deaths by air pollution. According to the WHO, exposure to particulate matter increases the risk of acute lower respiratory infection, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease, stroke and lung cancer.

...The problem with this ploy is that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant and it is dishonest to say it is. CO2 is colorless, odorless and completely non-toxic. Plants depend on it to live and grow, and human beings draw some into their lungs with every breath they take to no ill effect whatsoever.

Growers regularly pump CO2 into greenhouses, raising levels to three times that of the natural environment, to produce stronger, greener, healthier plants.

Ref. W.H.O map.

Quoting www.nasa.gov April 26, 2016

"From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide...leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet's vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States."

Ref. Earth Going Green Environmentalists in Denial by Lewis Loflin



Identity politics has a long and ugly history under its proper name - fascism... David Horowitz

The words of environmental activists:

1988 then Sen. Timothy Wirth, D-Colo said,

"We've got to...try to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong...we will be doing the right thing anyway in terms of economic policy and environmental policy."

Louis Pecci on Facebook:

Humans are the worst thing that happened to earth. I hope that we all disappear, so the earth can heal itself. So, please do not stop using your cars, buy every shit that you see and please pollute as much as you can... Do not forget money is your God, and you do anything for it.
Elite colleges may soon face more pressure to recruit poor and middle-class students, if the Supreme Court restricts race-based affirmative action. A ruling in the case, involving the University of Texas, is expected sometime before late June...

Why the heck do we assume all poor people are black and Hispanic when in fact by shear numbers most of the poor are white?

They fear ending affirmative action racism. They need another excuse to allow less qualified non-whites into the system.

Lower income whites are likely to be conservative and the wrong social class and race.

Diversity for non-whites only

In "How Diversity Punishes Asians, Poor Whites and Lots of Others" by Russell K. Nieli explains this. "Diversity" has become anything but white.

Most "white positions go to for the rich kids of former graduates. They share a similar political and social ideology of the institution.

Other positions go to selected international students. The rest goes to racist diversity quotas. "Diversity" doesn't include the majority of white Americans outside their group.

Most elite universities seem to have little interest in diversifying their student bodies when it comes to the numbers of born-again Christians from the Bible belt, students from Appalachia and other rural and small-town areas, people who have served in the U.S. military, those who have grown up on farms or ranches, Mormons, Pentecostals, Jehovah's Witnesses, lower-middle-class Catholics, working class "white ethnics, social and political conservatives, wheelchair users, married students, married students with children, or older students first starting out in college after raising children or spending several years in the workforce. Students in these categories are often very rare at the more competitive colleges, especially the Ivy League...

Knowledge and intelligence leads to success in the new economy. Lower-skilled workers compete with automation. Plus the economy is flooded with unskilled immigrants. This leaves us with serious social problems.

Ability varies and it varies a lot and can't be social engineered away. Many attending four-year colleges shouldn't be. They often end up with worthless paper and mountains of debt.

Also see Crime Rates Proportional to Diversity

See School Violence Hidden in Virginia Schools
Suspending Criminal Blacks Not Racism.

More violence likely hidden in Florida Schools and elsewhere:

See School Violence Hidden in Virginia Schools
Suspending Criminal Blacks Not Racism.

Black parents grieve over child murdered by MS13.

Update April 22, 2014: The Supreme Court has overturned a lower court ruling in Michigan.

This was against the voter approved ban on affirmative action.

It's hoped we can finally end institutionalized racial bias. The fight is not over yet. Even before this ruling the liberal racial social engineers were already at work.

We should not punish White and Asian students based on racial group membership.

In the article How Diversity Punishes Asians, Poor Whites and Lots of Others by Russell K. Nieli proves this point. To quote,

When lower-class whites are matched with lower-class blacks and other non-whites the degree of the non-white advantage becomes astronomical: lower-class Asian applicants are seven times as likely to be accepted to the competitive private institutions as similarly qualified whites, lower-class Hispanic applicants eight times as likely, and lower-class blacks ten times as likely.

World's 50 Most Violent Cities Were Black-Hispanic in 2014

January 21, 2015

Forty-three of the world's 50 most violent cities in 2014 were in Latin America...

Ten cities in Mexico made the most-violent list, and all of them except for Acapulco and 50th place Cuernavaca are located in the country's north - Culiacan, Ciudad Juarez, Ciudad Obregon, Nuevo Laredo, Ciudad Victoria, Chihuahua, and Tijuana...

The others are black majority cities:

The list also includes four US cities among the world's most murderous: St. Louis (19th), Detroit (22nd), New Orleans (28th), and Baltimore (40th). The three cities not in the Americas that made the 2014 list were in South Africa - led by Cape Town, in 14th place.

Ref. news.vice.com



The New York Times bitterly admits:

Colleges currently give little or no advantage in the admissions process to low-income students, compared with more affluent students of the same race, other research has found...Among high-achieving, low-income students, 6 percent were black, 8 percent Latino, 15 percent Asian-American and 69 percent white, the study found.

It's right there in writing - 84 percent of the talented poor are white and Asian at 69 percent white. Their effort will once again be to benefit less qualified Blacks and Hispanics.

Whites and Asians will still face exclusion over their racial classification. Differing standards based on race are the essence of racism.

The following has been revealed by the New York Times March 16, 2013:

Only 34 percent of high-achieving high school seniors in the bottom fourth of income distribution attended any one of the country's 238 most selective colleges...despite a stated desire to recruit an economically diverse group of students, have largely failed to do so...

There's no effort at all to recruit high-achieving white and Asian students.

Efforts concern only lower-achieving Blacks and Hispanics. These ignored students never graduate college at all even attending local colleges. So why is this an issue in 2013? Here is the reason why: