The Alternative View Skeptic Site - Reason over Hype

Climate Models Miss the Mark: U.S. Thrives Despite Alarmism

By Lewis Loflin | Published May 27, 2025

Human CO₂ emissions influence climate change, but alarmist models predicting collapse have missed U.S. successes in energy, agriculture, and emissions reductions. Since 1975, U.S. CO₂ emissions dropped 17.1% by 2024, while global emissions rose, led by China and India. Record oil and crop production, clean air, and economic growth outperform dire forecasts. In Bristol, Virginia, low wages and healthcare costs demand focus, not extreme climate “solutions.” A 2022 Nature study highlights progressive bias in science, fueling a science-industry complex that overhypes threats [1]. Equal funding for human-centered research could prioritize local needs over global agendas.

U.S. Energy and Economic Resilience

In 2023, U.S. oil production reached a record 13.4 million barrels per day, making it the world’s top producer, up from 11.6 million in 2018 [2]. Crude oil prices stabilized at ~$70/barrel in 2025, with Bristol gas at $2.50/gallon [3]. Economic growth continued, with 2.7% GDP growth in 2024, decoupled from emissions, which fell 0.2% [4]. In 2018, the U.S. added 312,000 jobs in December, with 3.9% unemployment and 3.1% wage growth [5]. By 2025, unemployment is 4.2%, with 2.7% wage growth, showing resilience despite inflation [6].

Record Agricultural Yields

U.S. corn and wheat production set records in 2020–2023, with corn yields at 177 bushels/acre (2023) and wheat at 48.6 bushels/acre (2022) [7]. Climate shifts may move the Corn Belt north by 2100, but adaptation (e.g., climate-smart agriculture) mitigates risks [8]. Food remains affordable in Bristol, with a 2-pound bag of carrots at ~$1.20 in 2025, though inflation has raised costs [9]. Agricultural trade deficits ($3.5 billion, 2023) reflect global factors, not domestic failure [7].

CO2 Reductions and Clean Air

Since 1975, U.S. CO₂ emissions fell 17.1% by 2024, driven by natural gas, renewables, and efficiency, despite a 2021 rebound (+7% post-COVID) [10]. Global emissions rose 0.8% in 2024, with China (+0.4%) and India (+5.3%) leading growth [11]. The U.S. and Canada have the world’s cleanest air, with PM2.5 levels at 6–8 µg/m³ (2025), vs. 40–60 µg/m³ in China and India [12]. Methane emissions dropped 19% (1990–2022) due to better oil/gas practices [10].

Natural Climate Variability

Climate models often ignore natural variability, as seen in Tibet’s 1820s warming [13]. The Miocene (23–5 million years ago) had CO₂ levels of 400–600 ppm and thriving ecosystems, suggesting modern levels (422.5 ppm, 2024) are manageable [14]. The 1920s saw Arctic ice melt, likely increasing icebergs (e.g., Titanic, 1912), showing natural cycles [15]. Models overpredict catastrophe, missing U.S. resilience and adaptation.

Bristol’s Real Challenges

In Bristol, local issues outweigh global climate concerns. Key challenges:

Green energy mandates could raise energy costs, worsening affordability without clear climate gains.

Science-Industry Complex and Alarmism

The science-industry complex, fueled by progressive bias (60–70% liberal academics, 2014), promotes alarmist models to secure funding ($190 billion R&D, 2023) [1, 19]. NASA’s HANDY model, for instance, pushes extreme solutions like population control, ignoring U.S. successes [20]. Equal funding for research into natural variability and practical solutions (e.g., nuclear power) could counter hype. Poor science education (36% 8th graders proficient, NAEP, 2020) leaves the public vulnerable to fear-driven policies [21].

Model Prediction Reality (2025)
Energy scarcity Record U.S. oil production (13.4M barrels/day) [2].
Food shortages Record corn/wheat yields (177 bushels/acre) [7].
Rising U.S. CO2 17.1% below 2005 levels [10].
Graph of U.S. CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2024, showing a decline.

Conclusion

Climate models predicted collapse, missing U.S. oil, crop, and CO2 successes. Human CO₂ influences climate, but extreme “solutions” ignore natural variability and local priorities. In Bristol, low wages, housing, and healthcare need action, not globalist climate mandates. The science-industry complex’s alarmism, driven by progressive bias, distorts priorities. Equal funding for balanced science could focus on practical solutions, ensuring prosperity through reason, not fear.

References

  1. Carl, N., et al. (2022). Political bias in the social sciences. Nature Human Behaviour. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01382-3
  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2023). U.S. crude oil production. https://www.eia.gov
  3. AAA. (2025). National average gas prices. https://gasprices.aaa.com
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2024). U.S. GDP growth Q4 2024. https://www.bea.gov
  5. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2019). Employment situation December 2018. https://www.bls.gov
  6. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Employment situation January 2025. https://www.bls.gov
  7. U.S. Department of Agriculture. (2023). Crop production annual summary. https://www.usda.gov
  8. USDA Economic Research Service. (2023). Climate impacts on agriculture. https://www.ers.usda.gov
  9. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Consumer price index, Bristol, VA. https://www.bls.gov
  10. Environmental Protection Agency. (2024). U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2023. https://www.epa.gov
  11. International Energy Agency. (2024). Global CO2 emissions 2024. https://www.iea.org
  12. World Health Organization. (2025). Global air quality report. https://www.who.int
  13. Li, M., et al. (2018). Late summer temperature reconstruction, Tibetan Plateau. Global and Planetary Change, 163:10–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.02.001
  14. Tripati, A., et al. (2009). Miocene CO2 levels and climate. Science, 326:1394–1397. https://www.science.org
  15. IPCC. (2021). Sixth Assessment Report: Physical science basis. https://www.ipcc.ch
  16. Bristol Virginia Chamber of Commerce. (2025). Local wage survey. (Data estimated based on regional trends).
  17. Zillow. (2025). Bristol, VA housing market data. https://www.zillow.com
  18. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2025). Insulin pricing report. https://www.cms.gov
  19. Gross, N., & Simmons, S. (2014). Professors and their politics. Johns Hopkins University Press.
  20. Motesharrei, S., et al. (2014). HANDY model. Ecological Economics, 101:90–102. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-economics
  21. National Assessment of Educational Progress. (2020). Science proficiency report. https://www.nationsreportcard.gov