Introduction

Press reports often claim that CO2-driven climate change is causing dramatic changes in Great Lakes water levels, blaming rising CO2 for everything from floods to droughts. But science should be based on evidence, not headlines. I believe climate patterns are mostly natural, with human influence that isn’t always bad, and nature is resilient. This page uses Great Lakes water levels as a case study to show how press reports misrepresent data, ignoring natural cycles and geological factors, and highlights the need for transparent, evidence-based science.

Great Lakes Water Levels Over Time

Great Lakes water levels have always gone up and down, long before CO2 levels started rising. Records from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, going back to 1918, show that lakes like Superior, Michigan, and Huron fluctuate by about 0.5 to 1 meter every year. In the 1930s, levels dropped during a dry period; in the 1980s, they rose after heavy rainfall. Recent years are no different—levels hit a low in 2013, then rose to a high in 2020, all within the normal range seen over the past century. These changes are driven by natural factors like rainfall, evaporation, and snowmelt, not CO2.

Press reports often say climate change—caused by CO2—alters these patterns by changing precipitation or increasing evaporation. But the data shows no long-term trend linking CO2 to water levels. The variations we see today are the same as those from decades ago, before CO2 levels were as high as they are now at 420 parts per million. This suggests nature’s cycles, not human influence, are the main drivers.

Natural and Geological Factors

The Great Lakes region is still shaped by events from thousands of years ago. During the last Ice Age, glaciers up to 2 miles thick covered the area, pressing down the Earth’s crust. When the ice melted around 10,000 years ago, the land started to rise—a process called glacial rebound. Today, the Great Lakes region is rising at about 2 to 5 millimeters per year, while parts of the Eastern seaboard are sinking at 1 to 3 millimeters per year. This slow shift changes how water flows and affects lake levels, completely independent of CO2 or climate change.

Nature also works in cycles. The climate has been warming since the Little Ice Age ended around 1850, a cold period that lasted from 1300 to 1850. That warming—about 1.2 degrees Celsius over 175 years, or 0.007 degrees per year—is part of a natural recovery, not just human influence. Changes in rainfall and temperature over decades can affect the Great Lakes, but these are part of Earth’s natural rhythms, not a crisis caused by CO2. Nature is resilient, adapting to these shifts as it always has.

Plato thinking.

The Press and Climate Science Issues

Press reports often oversimplify Great Lakes water level changes, blaming CO2 without evidence. They might say rising CO2 warms the planet, leading to more evaporation or rainfall, but they ignore historical data showing these changes are normal. This reflects a broader problem in climate science communication: a reliance on computer models and adjusted data over raw measurements. Models struggle to predict the future because they can’t fully capture nature’s cycles or small, unpredictable changes—what scientists call background noise. For example, 1970s models predicted a new ice age, while 2000s models said the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013—neither happened.

Transparency is another issue. NASA adjusts temperature data before 1979, when satellite measurements began, to fill in gaps from sparse records. While this aims to improve accuracy, it makes the data harder for outsiders to verify. We need raw data, not models or adjustments, to understand what’s really happening. The Great Lakes case shows why: press reports turn natural variability into a CO2-driven crisis, misleading the public and pushing policies that may not match the evidence.

Conclusion

Great Lakes water levels have varied naturally for over a century, driven by rainfall, evaporation, and geological changes like glacial rebound—not CO2. Press reports often misrepresent this, blaming climate change without evidence, and reflect broader issues in climate science, like reliance on computer models and adjusted data. Climate patterns are mostly natural, with cycles dating back thousands of years, and human influence isn’t always bad—nature adapts, as it has through past changes. We need science based on real data, not media narratives, to make decisions that support human welfare and reflect the facts.

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