Introduction

Alarmists claim today’s climate—420 ppm CO₂ (0.042%)—causes massive harm, like “~70% biodiversity loss” or “~50% coral bleaching” (IPCC, 2018). These sound scary but lack solid data. The Miocene’s thriving ecosystems (news15.htm) and today’s resilience (news16.htm) show nature handles change. Using clear data, I’ll question these claims, showing low extinction rates, species replacement, and why “biodiversity loss” is subjective. My final page offers real fixes, unlike alarmist hype.

Key Terms

Biodiversity Loss: Claimed decline in species numbers, often exaggerated due to unknown totals (IPBES, 2019).

Extinction: Permanent loss of a species; rare today at ~1% vertebrates (IUCN, 2023).

Bleaching: Corals losing algae due to stress like heat or pollution, often recovering, not dying (AIMS, 2023).

Zooxanthellae: Tiny algae in corals, providing energy via photosynthesis, key to reef health (Wilson, 2008).

Plato thinking.

Miocene Resilience as Benchmark

Fourteen million years ago, the Miocene’s 400-600 ppm CO₂ (0.04-0.06%) and 4-6°C warmer climate supported countless species, from reefs to forests, with no CO₂-driven crises (Kürschner et al., 2008). Biodiversity—meaning the number of differing species—was high, despite unknown totals, as only ~150,000 of ~8.7 million estimated species are studied today (Mora et al., 2011). This resilience questions claims that today’s milder 420 ppm CO₂ (0.042%) causes catastrophic loss. Nature thrived then and adapts now.

Low Extinction Rates

Alarmists claim “100-1000x extinction rates” (IPCC, 2018), but data shows ~1% of vertebrates extinct (~1.13/year) since 1500 (IUCN, 2023). Birds lose ~0.25/year (~1.5% total), rodents ~1.3% (IUCN, 2023). Compare this to ~10,000 species in one Miocene reef (Wilson, 2008)—today’s losses are tiny. Unknown species counts (~8.7M estimated) make “~70% biodiversity loss” claims shaky (IPBES, 2019). Extinctions happen, but not at crisis levels alarmists push.

Species Replacement

Nature replaces species naturally. Rodents number ~10-20 billion globally, thriving despite land changes (Singleton et al., 2005). Owls in my region swapped one species for another, like rodents or Appalachian trees (~30-40% turnover, USDA Forest Service, 2020), showing adaptation (Livezey, 2009). This mirrors Miocene ecosystems, where species shifted without mass die-offs. Alarmists ignore replacement, hyping “loss” despite unknown totals (~150,000 studied species), making their claims more subjective than factual.

Critiquing Alarmist Claims

Claims like “~70% biodiversity loss” or “~50% reefs bleached” rely on guesses, not data (IPBES, 2019; IPCC, 2018). Bleaching is a survival tactic—corals recover in ~1-2 years, as Bikini Lagoon shows (~50-70% cover, Richards et al., 2008). “100-1000x extinction rates” lack evidence, with ~1.13 vertebrates/year lost (IUCN, 2023). CO₂ fertilization boosts plant growth ~10-20%, expanding habitats like northern treelines, countering “biodiversity loss” claims (Ainsworth & Long, 2005). Unknown species counts (~8.7M) and natural replacement (rodents, owls) weaken these claims. The Miocene’s thriving species prove nature’s strength, not fragility, unlike alarmist narratives.

Conclusion

Alarmist claims—“~70% biodiversity loss,” “~50% reefs bleached,” “100-1000x extinction rates”—crumble under scrutiny. Low extinctions (~1% vertebrates), species replacement (~10-20B rodents), and coral recovery show nature’s resilience, as in the Miocene. Biodiversity’s unknown totals (~8.7M species) make loss claims subjective. CO₂ at 420 ppm (0.042%) isn’t a crisis. My final page (a12.htm) offers fixes for real issues like land clearing, not alarmist hype.

References

Illustration of coral bleaching recovery or species replacement