By Lewis Loflin | Published May 9, 2025
This analysis looks at violent crime rates in some of the most dangerous US cities in 2017, based on data from Forbes and the FBI. It explores possible connections between crime, city demographics, family structure, and economic factors like job loss and immigration.
Data suggests that violent crime, including gun-related incidents, often rises in cities with higher rates of single-parent households. In 2017, communities with many Black, American Indian, and Hispanic residents often had over 50% of children born to unwed mothers. This trend may relate to challenges like family breakdown, which can affect child development and community stability, regardless of race.
In 2017, the ten most violent US cities, according to Forbes, had populations with less than 50% white residents and were often led by Democratic administrations for many years. Below is the list with key details:
| City | Population | Violent Crimes per 100,000 | % White | Mayor (2017) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit | 713,229 | 2,137 | 10% | Mike Duggan, Democrat |
| St. Louis | 320,454 | 1,857 | 44% | Lyda Krewson, Democrat |
| Oakland | 395,317 | 1,683 | 25% | Libby Schaaf, Democrat |
| Memphis | 652,725 | 1,582 | 29% | Jim Strickland, Democrat |
| Birmingham | 213,258 | 1,483 | 35% | Randall Woodfin, Socialist |
| Atlanta | 425,433 | 1,433 | 38% | Keisha Lance Bottoms, Nonpartisan |
| Baltimore | 626,848 | 1,417 | 31.6% | Catherine Pugh, Democrat |
| Stockton | 295,136 | 1,408 | 37% | Michael Tubbs, Democrat |
| Cleveland | 397,106 | 1,363 | 37% | Frank G. Jackson, Democrat |
| Buffalo | 262,484 | 1,238 | 45.8% | Byron Brown, Democrat |
Several factors may contribute to higher crime rates in these cities. Many residents face challenges like drug use and a lack of jobs, especially for those without advanced skills. Immigration has increased competition for jobs, making it harder for some workers to find employment. For example, in California, videos from 2017 show many Black individuals among the homeless, often displaced by job and housing pressures.
Historical job losses also play a role. According to Robert Cherry in a 2016 City Journal article:
The decline of American manufacturing hit the Black community hard. In 1975, 40 percent of young Midwestern Black men worked in manufacturing. By 1990, that number had dropped to just 10 percent.
Today, that number may be even lower, possibly around 1%, though exact figures are unavailable.
A 2013 report by the FBI, quoted in “10 Most Dangerous Cities in America” by Thomas C. Frohlich and others, noted that the national violent crime rate was 368 per 100,000 people. In the ten most dangerous cities, this rate was over 1,300 per 100,000. Cities like Detroit, St. Louis, and Baltimore also had some of the highest murder rates, with 45, 38, and 37 murders per 100,000 people, respectively.
Other cities like Rockford, Illinois, with a 65% white population, also appeared on violent city lists. Crime there was often higher in Black neighborhoods and near public housing. New Orleans, not on this top ten list, ranked among the world’s 50 most violent cities, alongside St. Louis and Baltimore, despite having more overall crime than smaller cities like Rockford.
Poverty rates in these cities are high, but poverty alone doesn’t explain crime. For example, Southwest Virginia has higher poverty rates than most of these cities, except Detroit, but much lower crime rates. West Virginia, one of the poorest states, also has low violent crime rates and is over 90% white. This suggests that factors beyond poverty, like family structure and job access, may influence crime more directly.
In Virginia, students with disruptive behavior often face juvenile court, more so than in other states. In response, Governor Terry McAuliffe launched an initiative called “Classrooms not Courtrooms” to focus on addressing student behavior without involving police or courts, aiming to keep kids in school.
This 2017 data shows a pattern: cities with higher diversity, single-parent households, and job challenges often have higher violent crime rates. However, poverty alone doesn’t fully explain these trends, as seen in low-crime but poor regions like Southwest Virginia. Understanding these patterns requires looking at many factors, from family life to economic opportunities.
For more on societal resilience, see my Bronze Age Collapse on BristolBlog.com.
Acknowledgment: Thanks to Grok, created by xAI, for drafting assistance. Final edits and views are mine.