It would be unwise to dismiss the potential impacts of significant climate shifts on human civilization, especially with a global population of 8 billion.
However, dismantling modern industrial society in response is an equally impractical approach that overlooks the issue's complexity.
Major climate shifts are inevitable, driven by factors largely independent of CO2 levels.
Over the past 11,700 years of the Holocene epoch, the Earth has experienced numerous dramatic climate changes, as evidenced by historical records and paleoclimate data. Addressing these shifts through trendy climate or social initiatives may distract from understanding the broader, natural processes at play.
I remain skeptical of computer model predictions and sensationalized media reports on climate change.
Climate is inherently dynamic, shaped by a multitude of natural factors. These include plate tectonics (once called continental drift), cosmic rays, ocean, and wind circulation patterns (such as El Niño, La Niña, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability), land and seafloor rise and subsidence, solar radiation, volcanic dust and aerosols, mountain ranges like the Andes and Himalayas, human-induced pollution, greenhouse gases, Saharan dust, ice and glacier cover, Earth's axial tilt, and the positions of planets in the solar system, among others.
This complexity suggests climate change is a natural phenomenon influenced by far more than any single factor, such as CO2 emissions.
I question the reliability of computer models and the alarmist narratives often amplified by activists, politicians, and the media.
Many models have failed to predict climate trends accurately, and their assumptions can reflect biases or oversimplifications of the Earth's systems.
Failed computer modeling and hysterical headlines don't mean climate change itself is a hoax—far from it.
In my view, the real issue lies in how the term "climate change" has been redefined to focus narrowly on human-driven causes, often ignoring the broader natural cycles that have shaped the planet for millennia.
Acknowledging climate change as a natural process doesn't negate the need for responsible environmental stewardship.
We should address human impacts, like pollution and deforestation. However, we must admit that most climate shifts can't be controlled or attributed to human activity.
A balanced approach that respects scientific inquiry avoids sensationalism and considers both natural and human factors, offering a more constructive path forward than denial or drastic societal upheaval.
The image above, shared by Go Green—an environmental activist group—claims that "Atmospheric CO2 levels haven't been this high in 14 million years," a statement echoed in an article titled "Current carbon dioxide levels last seen 14 million years ago" by Issam Ahmed on Phys.org, published on March 1, 2024.
The piece warns that the impacts of these CO2 levels are "not yet manifested in everyday reality, but they will be one day."
While Go Green and similar groups often cite credible science, their messaging can blend objective data with subjective agendas, aiming to alarm the public and push for specific political changes.
The article by Ahmed, however, doesn't present new research. Instead, it synthesizes existing studies, re-evaluating published data on CO2 levels using updated methods.
Ahmed explains that paleoclimatologists used "proxies"—such as the chemical composition of ancient leaves, minerals, and plankton—to estimate atmospheric carbon levels over millions of years.
The study confirms that 50 million years ago, during the Eocene epoch (56 to 33.9 million years ago), CO2 levels spiked as high as 1,600 ppm, temperatures were 12°C warmer than today, and a long decline followed.
This period of the Age of Mammals saw the first primates emerge and life flourish in pole-to-pole forests, a time of remarkable biodiversity.
Some research attributes the CO2 spike to volcanic eruptions in what is now Iran, highlighting a natural driver of climate change.
Climate Complexity vs. CO2 Hype
Global temperatures have risen ~1°C since 1850, likely within Holocene variability (~±0.5–1.0°C), expected from natural processes like Little Ice Age recovery (~0.1–0.3°C) and Arctic sea ice loss (~20–30% pre-1950), which amplified warming (~0.03–0.1°C) as open water absorbed heat. Cool, open Arctic water absorbs more CO2, lowering ocean pH (~0.02–0.05 units pre-1950), while phytoplankton growth (~20–30% increase) boosts food chains and CO2 uptake (~0.01–0.03°C cooling), offsetting acidification (~0.01–0.03 units). Pollution, particularly SO2 aerosols from coal burning, drove cooling (~0.1–0.3°C, 1940s–1980), expanding sea ice (~5–10%), but reduced emissions post-1980 amplified warming (~0.1–0.2°C) and ice melt. Higher solar insolation (~0.05–0.2 W/m²) contributes ~15–25% (~0.15–0.25°C) with ice and biological effects, potentially more if cloud cover decreased, but models fail to simulate clouds, undermining attribution. CO2’s rise (~120 ppm) plays a significant role (~30–60%), but sparse 1850 data (~20–30% coverage) and proxies (e.g., Moberg et al., 2005; PAGES 2k, 2019) make claims (~1°C warming, ~0.1-unit pH drop) speculative. Ocean pH has dropped slightly (~0.05–0.1 units since the 1980s), yet Eocene oceans (~7.8–8.0) thrived, suggesting resilience. Alarmist CO2 narratives, like those from Go Green, exaggerate impacts, ignoring natural and pollution-driven variability.
More urgent are pollutants like nickel mining waste in Indonesia, dumping ~500,000 tons yearly, killing corals and fish in months, unlike CO2’s gradual effects. Past SO2 pollution cooled the planet, while current nickel waste devastates ecosystems, exposing misplaced climate priorities tied to ‘green’ technologies. CO2 contributes to warming and pH changes, but its share is uncertain, and fear-driven policies distract from real harm. Transparent science and practical stewardship, as shown by Eocene resilience, offer a balanced path over hype.
While this synthesis validates well-established geological knowledge—information in textbooks for decades—it's presented in a way that emphasizes alarm over context.
The narrative focuses heavily on CO2 as the primary driver of climate change, suggesting a direct, 100% cause-and-effect relationship with global temperatures. This oversimplification can mislead the public.
As I've noted, the climate is influenced by many factors beyond CO2, including plate tectonics, solar radiation, ocean circulation patterns (like El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), volcanic activity, and more.
For instance, the Eocene's warm climate and high CO2 levels coincided with thriving ecosystems that did not collapse, challenging the idea that elevated CO2 inherently spells disaster.
Go Green's post and Ahmed's article exemplify a broader trend among activists and media outlets: using selective scientific findings to create fear rather than foster understanding.
While CO2 levels today (around 420 ppm in 2024) are indeed the highest in 14 million years, this fact alone doesn't account for the complexity of climate systems or the adaptability of life, as seen in the Eocene.
The intent behind such messaging often appears to be political—scaring the public into supporting drastic measures—rather than encouraging a nuanced discussion about environmental stewardship.
Rising CO2 levels warrant attention, particularly regarding human contributions like fossil fuel use and deforestation, which can exacerbate natural climate variability.
However, focusing solely on CO2 while ignoring other drivers or the Earth's historical resilience risks distorting the bigger picture.
A more balanced approach would involve addressing human impacts responsibly—through innovation and sustainable practices—while recognizing that climate change is a natural process we must adapt to, not a simplistic problem to "solve" through fear-driven policies.
The above image illustrates a key aspect of Earth’s climate during the Eocene epoch (55.8 to 33.9 million years ago) when mammals thrived.
This map, which highlights a Global Equatorial Current and a closed Drake Passage linking Antarctica to South America, contrasts sharply with today’s ocean circulation patterns.
My understanding of this period draws heavily from Earth System History by Dr. Steven M. Stanley, a college-level textbook I rely on.
While newer editions cost around $100 on Amazon, a used copy is a worthwhile investment. The book offers a neutral, scientific perspective on climate change, though its dense content makes it challenging—readers may benefit from prior biology or chemistry coursework to fully grasp it.
Dr. Stanley’s work confirms that CO2 levels during the Eocene exceeded 800 ppm, significantly higher than today’s approximately 420 ppm.
However, this alone wasn’t the primary driver of the warm climate.
The image underscores the role of geology and ocean currents. Unlike today, the Drake Passage was closed, allowing warm waters to flow around the globe, warming the poles.
A large seaway between North and South America facilitated a powerful equatorial current from the Pacific to the Atlantic, distributing heat worldwide.
Additionally, the Himalayas were still forming, and the Andes had not yet risen—changes that would later alter climate dynamics.
This configuration and extensive global forest cover maintained a humid climate through transpiration, releasing substantial water vapor into the atmosphere.
This warm, stable environment supported abundant life. Notably, there’s no evidence of mass extinctions during the Eocene, and the oceans, far from acidic, teemed with marine life.
This fact challenges the notion that high CO2 levels inevitably lead to ecological collapse, suggesting other factors—particularly ocean circulation—played a dominant role.
The end of the Eocene, 33.9 million years ago, marks a turning point. The opening of the Drake Passage, separating Antarctica from South America, established a circumpolar current.
Over millions of years, this current cooled and dried the planet, even with CO2 levels remaining high (800+ ppm).
This implies that ocean currents and geological changes can significantly impact climate more than CO2 alone.
Today’s open Drake Passage and different current patterns reflect a cooler world, highlighting how natural shifts, rather than human activity, have historically driven significant climate transitions.
This perspective encourages a broader view of climate science, recognizing human influences like fossil fuel emissions while appreciating the complex interplay of natural processes.
Dr. Stanley’s work reminds us that understanding these dynamics requires careful study beyond the headlines to inform balanced environmental strategies.
Date: May 4, 2025.
Acknowledgment: I’d like to thank Grok, an AI by xAI, for helping me draft and refine this article. The final edits and perspective are my own.
About 33.9 MYA began the Oligocene. The climate dried and forests died out taking many species with them. Deserts, savanna, grassland replaced forests. Massive amounts of water became locked up as ice in Antarctica. Sea levels fell. Mountain building and marine organisms removed CO2 from the atmosphere. Midway through the Miocene the climate collapsed.
The Miocene Climate Optimum 14 MYA is what the article refers to. There was a far greater diversity of life then than now.
Above is climate in the N. Hemisphere. From 5.3-2.6 million years is the Pliocene. ~2.6-11,700 years ago is the Pleistocene. The modern epoch is the Holocene.
Notice the globe in the upper right, then compare the globe in the center. The Central America seaway closed ~3 MYA. This changed global ocean currents blocking warm Pacific water flowing into the Atlantic. Sea ice appeared for the first time in the Arctic.
While CO2 levels over 5 million years was unchanged, the Northern Hemisphere climate went crazy.
It swung from one ice age extreme to warming period extreme after another. Over the last million years it has been mainly ice ages.
It is impossible to recreate the global temperatures of 14 million or 50 million years ago even with 800 PPM CO2. This is not the same earth.
In conclusion, CO2 plays a small part in climate. If 420 PPM CO2 existed 14 MYA that produced a very different world than now, then present warming isn't likely caused by 0.0115% of CO2 added by humans.
- Four part series:
- Part 1: Nature’s Resilience
- Part 2: Historical Climate Patterns
- Part 3: Climate Evidence
- Part 4: Modern Climate and Conclusions
- Miocene’s Optimal Climate: A Golden Age for Life | Bristol Blog
- Modern Climate: No Crisis | Bristol Blog
- Questioning Alarmist Claims | Bristol Blog
- Fixable Issues: Land-Use and Pollution | Bristol Blog
- Earth science reveals the past:
- Climate Warming Since 1750 – A Steady Trend
- Warming Since 1800: Borehole Data Reveals Natural Climate Drivers
- Mastodons Roamed Greenland 2 Million Years Ago
- 11,700 Years of Sudden Climate Change
- Arctic Warming: Beyond CO2 - Bristol Blog
- What is Actualism in Earth Science? Lessons from Drought Cycles - Bristol Blog
- How CO2 and Climate Shape Plants: C3, C4, and Greening
- Did Meteor Impact in Greenland Kill Stone Age America? | Bristol Blog
- Earth Science Insights: Historical Climate Change Over Geological Time
Share This Article
References
- Stanley, S. M. (various editions). Earth System History. W.H. Freeman.
- Moberg et al. (2005). Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Nature, 433.
- PAGES 2k Consortium (2019). Global temperature reconstructions. Nature Geoscience, 12.
- IPCC (2021). Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I.
- Walsh et al. (2017). Arctic sea ice reconstructions. Geographical Review, 107.
- Arrigo et al. (2012). Arctic primary production trends. Science, 336.
- Smith et al. (2011). Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11.
- Marine Pollution Bulletin (2021). Deep-sea tailings disposal in Indonesia.
- Ahmed, I. (2024). Current carbon dioxide levels last seen 14 million years ago. Phys.org, March 1.
