Russian Borehole Data: Warming Since 1800

My climate research focuses on borehole temperature records from Russia, reconstructing 500 years of surface temperatures. Detailed in Pollack et al. (1998), these measurements show warming began ~1800, after the Little Ice Age (1300–1850), with a ~0.25°C rise from 1800–1900 and ~0.75°C from 1900–2000, totaling ~1°C. This aligns with global warming of ~1.1°C (~2°F) since pre-industrial times, per IPCC reports. While significant, this warming reflects natural cycles, like solar output changes, alongside rising CO2 (~280 ppm in 1800 to ~420 ppm now), indicating a complex climate system.

The warming exhibits hysteresis, where ocean and ice thermal inertia delay responses to climate drivers. During the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), low sunspot activity reduced solar output, cooling the LIA. Post-1800, increased solar output, per Lean et al. (2002), drove gradual warming, slowed by cold oceans and ice cover. Borehole data reveal temperature fluctuations from 1800–2000—both positive and negative spikes—but the average trend is upward, confirming a natural component to modern warming.

Some researchers emphasize human CO2 emissions as the primary driver, but borehole records suggest solar and natural factors contribute significantly. As a skeptic, I prioritize empirical data—boreholes, fossils, and solar records—over model-based predictions. The ~2°F rise since 1800, though notable, partly reflects recovery from the LIA’s cold, not solely human activity. Policies should reduce fossil fuel waste based on balanced data, promoting practical solutions like efficient energy use, not fear-driven narratives.

Russian borehole temperature trends over 500 years
Russian borehole data showing temperature trends, 1500–2000.
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Key Terms
Term Definition
Borehole Deep hole drilled to measure past ground temperatures, reconstructing climate history.
Hysteresis Delayed climate response, e.g., oceans and ice slowing temperature changes.
Little Ice Age Cool period ~1300–1850, marked by low solar output and cold climates.
Sunspot Dark spot on the Sun, indicating solar activity; fewer spots mean less solar output.
Holocene temperatures versus CO2 do not track each other suggesting other factors at play.

Holocene temperatures versus CO2 do not track each other suggesting other factors at play.

Holocene Climate Shifts in Eurasia

My studies of northern Eurasia, based on MacDonald et al. (2000), reveal climate shifts during the Holocene (~11,700 years ago to present). From 10,000 to 7,000 years BP, boreal forests reached Russia’s Arctic coastline, with July temperatures 2.5–7.0°C warmer than today, driven by high solar insolation and reduced sea ice. Forests retreated by 4,000–3,000 years BP as insolation declined, per radiocarbon-dated macrofossils. This warmth supported diverse ecosystems, showing resilience to natural climate changes.

Some researchers observe modern Arctic greening, with trees advancing 40–50 meters per year in Norway, per *The Guardian* (2022), mirroring Holocene patterns. This greening, tied to warming since 1800, enhances biodiversity and growing seasons, as seen 6,000 years ago. CO2 (~280–420 ppm) contributes, but solar and oceanic factors are key. Empirical data—fossils and treeline records—should guide climate policy, not speculative models.

Key Terms
Term Definition
Holocene Current geological epoch, began ~11,700 years ago with warming.
Solar Insolation Solar energy received by Earth, varying with orbital cycles and sunspot activity.
Macrofossil Preserved plant or animal remains, used to reconstruct past climates.

Solar Radiation and Warming Trends

My analysis of NASA research (Willson, 2003) shows solar radiation increased by ~0.05% per decade since the late 1970s, with historical records indicating a rise since the late 1800s. This tracks Russian borehole data, contributing to ~1.1°C global warming since 1800. Sunspot cycles, measured since 1755, influence solar output, with Cycle 25 (2019–2025) nearing a peak, potentially raising temperatures. Solar trends are a significant climate driver.

Some researchers attribute most warming to CO2 (~420 ppm), but solar trends and borehole data highlight multiple factors. The 1970s solar increase, causing atmospheric expansion and Skylab’s 1979 reentry, demonstrates solar impacts. Mars ice cap shrinkage in the 2000s aligns with this period, though not solely solar-driven. Empirical records—sunspot data, boreholes—should inform policy, not models alone.

Key Terms
Term Definition
Sunspot Cycle ~11-year cycle of solar activity, affecting Earth’s climate.
Solar Radiation Energy emitted by the Sun, influencing global temperatures.

Climate Feedback Mechanisms

My research into feedbacks shows warming since 1800 involves complex processes. Melting glaciers from the LIA, per MacLeod (2018), reduce sunlight reflection, a positive feedback. Soot on ice accelerates melting, while volcanic eruptions, like Pinatubo (1991), cool Earth by ~0.5°C via aerosols, a negative feedback. Oceans, warming since 1800, release CO2, amplifying warming.

Some researchers focus on CO2 emissions, but feedbacks—solar, volcanic, oceanic—shape climate. Arctic sea ice, higher in 2023 than 1981 despite CO2 rise, shows variability, not collapse. Policies should address emissions practically, using data—boreholes, ice records—not fear-based predictions.

NASA, 2003: “If a trend... persisted throughout the 20th century, it would have provided a significant component of the global warming...”

Evidence based Earth Science

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