Introduction

Climate change is real and has been happening for 4.5 billion years, driven by natural forces like ocean currents and sunlight changes. While humans may play a role in today’s climate, the exact impact is uncertain and can’t be proven with current science. This page explores climate change through Earth Science, using hard data to understand its natural cycles, the challenges of predicting the future, and practical ways to care for the environment. Also see Green Technology Highly Polluting, Environmentally Destructive for more on the hidden costs of green solutions.

Climate Change Over Earth’s History

Earth’s climate is always changing, influenced by natural patterns called cycles. Ocean currents, like El Niño, can shift rainfall patterns every few years. Changes in sunlight, caused by the wobble of Earth’s axis or its orbit around the sun, happen over thousands of years. Fossils from ocean mud show these sunlight cycles caused temperature changes every 41,000 and 100,000 years over the past few million years. Ice samples from Antarctica reveal CO2 levels swinging between 180 and 300 parts per million over the last 800,000 years, long before humans existed.

Sometimes, sudden events disrupt these cycles. About 74,000 years ago, a massive volcanic eruption in Toba released ash that cooled the planet for years. Around 66 million years ago, a giant asteroid strike wiped out the dinosaurs and changed the climate for centuries. These events show how Earth’s climate can shift abruptly, even without human influence, reminding us that nature has always been dynamic.

Plato thinking.

Challenges in Climate Predictions

Predicting future climate is hard because Earth is so complex. It’s influenced by thousands of small factors, called forcings (things that push climate change, like CO2 or sunlight), and feedbacks (effects that can amplify or reduce changes, like melting ice reflecting less sunlight). These factors interact in ways we can’t fully test in a lab or observe in a lifetime. Many past predictions have been wrong. In the 1970s, some scientists warned of a new ice age. In 1989, the UN predicted severe coastal flooding by 2000, which didn’t happen. In 2006, some said the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013, but it still had about 5 million square kilometers of ice that year.

Billions have been spent on climate research—about $165 billion in the U.S. from 1993 to 2019—but the results are mixed. Some computer models predicted warming of 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade since 1979, while actual warming has been closer to 0.17 degrees per decade. While global temperatures have risen about 1.2 degrees Celsius since 1850, long-term forecasts remain uncertain because Earth’s systems are too complicated to predict with precision.

Practical Environmental Solutions

Instead of relying on uncertain predictions or green technologies that can pollute, we can take practical steps to help the environment. I focus on reducing waste, reusing what I can, and recycling when it makes sense. For example, I wrote this page on a computer I salvaged from the trash, giving it a new life instead of adding to a landfill. I don’t burn plastics, pour motor oil on the ground, or litter. I clean up trash others leave behind, like tires in the creek near my home, and I even stop to move turtles off the road to keep them safe. These small actions reduce pollution and waste, showing that caring for the environment doesn’t need big promises—just consistent, practical effort.

Conclusion

Climate change is real, and while humans may contribute, the extent is uncertain and may interact with natural cycles in unpredictable ways. Earth Science shows us that climate has always changed, driven by cycles like ocean currents and sunlight, and sometimes by sudden events like volcanoes or asteroid strikes. Predicting the future is challenging, as past forecasts have often been wrong, and billions spent on research haven’t solved the uncertainty. Instead of focusing on unproven ideas, we should use hard data to understand Earth’s history and take practical steps—like reducing waste and reusing materials—to protect the environment without causing new problems.

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